L'impact de l'Amendement de Kigali sur le réchauffement planétaire (en anglais)

Le 8e "Emission Gap Report" reconnaît la possible contribution des polluants climatiques à courte durée de vie (PCLS) dans l'effort mondial visant à contenir le réchauffement de la planète bien en-dessous de 2°C par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels.

The 8th Emissions Gap Report, published in November 2017 by UN Environment (UNEP) acknowledges the potential contribution short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) including methane, tropospheric ozone, black carbon, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), could make in the global effort to keep the planet’s warming well below 2 °C  compared  to  pre-industrial  levels.

Stringent SLCP reductions based on existing, demonstrated technical measures could reduce warming over the period from 2018 to 2050 by between 0.32 and 0.86 ?C relative to current emissions projections.

An example of this potential is the Kigali Amendment to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. Agreed upon in October, 2016, the Amendment has the potential to decrease HFC emissions by 61% and prevent between 0.05 and 0.09 °C of warming by 2050.

However, the report stresses that reductions in SLCP emissions cannot be considered equivalent to reductions in long-lived greenhouse gases, as many impacts are not directly proportional to global mean temperature change at a given point in time. For this reason, climate change mitigation policies need to consider these two classes of emissions separately.

These estimates are in line with those of the recent IIR Informatory Note on the impact of the refrigeration sector on climate change (see the news above) which states that “the Kigali Amendment would prevent a potential increase of average temperatures between 0.1 °C and 0.3 °C by 2100 (not the frequently referenced figure of 0. 5 °C).”

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