L’impact énergétique des conditionneurs d’air en Inde

Selon la Banque Mondiale, il y avait environ 5 millions de conditionneurs d'air en Inde, alors que selon d'autres estimations, il y en avait jusqu'à 9,7 millions dans le secteur résidentiel uniquement.
According to the World Bank, in 2011, there were roughly 5 million room air conditioners (ACs)  in India, while other estimates show higher levels up to 9.7 million ACs in 2010 for residential use alone.

Room ACs dominate the AC market, making up nearly 99% of annual sales. Room ACs run for about 8 hours a day for at least half the year. Studies show that AC use already accounts for up to 40% and 60% of energy use in the cities of Mumbai and New Delhi, respectively. More than 75% of the energy load in these two cities comes from residential and commercial uses.  

As the Indian economy grows, energy consumption is also projected to increase. This projection, coupled with India’s ambient temperatures, which frequently exceed 40°C (104°F) during hot months, means people are increasingly turning to air conditioning systems to stay cool during summer. Room ACs market penetration in urban households stood at only 3% in 2010.
Compared to other countries with 100% saturation, the Indian market is poised for explosive growth in air conditioning energy demands, especially as the economy grows. As an example, ACs  market penetration in major cities in China went from nearly zero to about 100% in a 15-year period, between 1992 and 2007. In India, room ACs sales have been growing at a rate of 20% on average over the last 10 years. With higher incomes and rising temperatures due to climate change, that growth is only likely to accelerate. 

Energy requirements for cooling buildings will grow faster than any other energy demand in the Indian building sector, according to CEEW experts. The number of installed room ACs will grow from 4 million to 116 million with an increased electricity consumption from 8 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2010 to 239 TWh by 2030, according to research from the Lawrence Berkeley National Labs*. This growth could put a huge additional burden on India’s energy grid and “require unprecedented construction of new power plants.” Earlier 2008 estimates from the World Bank predict a ten-fold increase in the ACs stock between 2011 and 2031, projecting increases from 4.7 million to 48 million ACs.

*According  to this report (Avoiding 100 New Power Plants by Increasing Efficiency of Room Air Conditioners in India: Opportunities and Challenges, June 2014), the total potential energy savings from room AC efficiency improvement in India using the best available technology will reach over 118 TWh in 2030; potential peak demand saving is found to be 60 GW by 2030. This is equivalent to avoiding 120 new coal fired power plants of 500 MW each.

Sources: NRDC, The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory