L'avenir du conditionnement d'air.

Navigant consulting, un cabinet d'expertise spécialisé, a produit un rapport sur l'avenir du conditionnement d'air pour les bâtiments. Des chiffres intéressants concernant la croissance attendue de la demande ainsi que sur l'impact environnemental du conditionnement d'air y sont fournis.
The report « The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings » prepared by Navigant Consulting for the US Department of Energy (DOE) provides valuable figures on the expected growth in air conditioning (AC) demand and its environmental impact.

Today, AC equipment represents close to a USD 100 billion, 100 million-unit per year global market, and accounts for 4.5 exajoules of site energy consumption per year, comprising just over 4% of global building site-energy consumption.
While adoption of AC in developed countries increased rapidly in the 20th century, the 21st century will see greater adoption in developing countries, especially those in hot and (possibly) humid climates with large and growing populations, such as India, China, Brazil, and Middle Eastern nations.
IEA projects that AC energy consumption by 2050 will increase 4.5 times over 2010 levels for non-OECD countries versus 1.3 times for OECD countries. Globally, stationary AC systems account for nearly 700 million metric tons of direct and indirect CO2 equivalent emissions annually.
Indirect emissions from electricity generation account for approximately 74% of this total, with direct emissions of HFC and HCFC refrigerants accounting for 7% and 19%, respectively.

Transitioning to low-GWP refrigerants could eliminate the vast majority of direct emissions from AC systems.
With preliminary testing indicating the potential for efficiency improvements for equipment using low-GWP refrigerants, reductions to indirect emissions are possible as well, especially if high-efficiency equipment adoption is incentivized globally through efficiency standards and labeling programs.
Given the refrigerant options available today, DOE sees opportunity to reduce global AC CO2 emissions by 20% or more (75% or more of all direct emissions).
Deeper reductions in emissions are possible in the long-term from lower-GWP refrigerants and improved efficiency.