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Changement climatique : corrélations avec la température compilées sur les 7 derniers siècles.

Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries.

Auteurs : HEGERL G. C., CROWLEY T. J., HYDE W. T., et al.

Type d'article : Article

Résumé

The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K. A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K. In the article the authors demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered.

Détails

  • Titre original : Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries.
  • Identifiant de la fiche : 2006-3235
  • Langues : Anglais
  • Sujet : Environnement, Généralités
  • Source : Nature - vol. 440 - n. 7087
  • Date d'édition : 20/04/2006

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