ShareAssessing the market potential of industrial heat pumps in Europe
To address the lack of product development of high temperature heat pumps, a recent article provides manufacturers with an estimate of the industrial heat pump market potential in EU-28 in terms of cumulative heating capacity, number of units, typical sizing and temperature levels.
According to a recent IIR Informatory Note, high-temperature heat pumps are a key technology in the decarbonisation of process industries. Globally, an estimated 42% of industrial waste heat is available at temperatures below 100°C. However, thermal processes requiring heat supply between 80°C and 300°C are common in various industrial sectors, including agro-food, beverage, chemical, and paper industries. For these industries, high temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) are an excellent option to upgrade the temperature of a waste heat source to that of a given process with the input of either heat or electrical energy. Therefore, the reuse of waste heat in the process becomes possible, resulting in significant savings in energy consumption and a reduction in associated CO2 emissions.
However, few heat pump equipment manufacturers offer products capable of supplying the high temperatures required by industry. The HTHP market is dominated by vapour compression technology but few of these units can deliver heat at temperatures over 90°C, compatible with the needs of the food, chemical and paper industries. Nowadays, the maximum temperature value achievable with this technology is 160°C. The lack of product development of products providing higher temperatures can be attributed to a lack of knowledge among heat pump manufacturers about industrial applications and the size of the market in Europe.
In a recent study, the authors sought to address this issue by providing an estimate of the industrial heat pump market potential in EU-28 in terms of cumulative heating capacity, number of units, typical sizing and temperature levels. Energy intensive sectors with a large heat demand for temperatures below 200°C are most relevant for heat pump technology. According to a previous study, the largest heat demand for temperatures below 200°C can be found in the paper and pulp sector, the chemical and refining sectors and the food sector. The authors calculated the process and waste heat quantities in EU-28 for the four sectors. When combined, the four sectors account for 1123 PJ/a of process heat and 1130 PJ/a of waste heat for temperatures <200°C.
As for the market potential of industrial heat pumps up to 200°C, the authors calculated a cumulative heating capacity of 23.0GW, spread over 4,174 heat pump units that could cover 641PJ/a of process heat demand. The authors determined that the largest opportunities were in the chemical (283PJ/a) and paper (245PJ/a) sectors. The median COP calculated for the potential heat pump market up to 200°C was 2.77.
Table. Summary of the market potential for industrial heat pumps up to 200°C in the EU-28.
|
Cumulative Heating Capacity |
Number of heat pumps units |
Heat Pump Process Heat Coverage |
Electricity Requirement |
Heat Pump Relative Process Heat Coverage |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
(GW) |
(PJ/a) |
(PJ/a) |
(%) |
||
|
Sector |
|||||
|
Paper |
7.9 |
1,351 |
245 |
94 |
69% |
|
Chemical |
9.1 |
1,291 |
283 |
65 |
80% |
|
Food |
5.5 |
1,463 |
98 |
31 |
51% |
|
Refinery |
0.5 |
69 |
14 |
6 |
6% |
|
Total |
23.0 |
4,174 |
641 |
195 |
57% |
The authors also quantified the energy and CO2 savings as well as the investments needed to realise the market potential. In an ideal scenario with a fully decarbonised electricity production system, the annual primary energy savings achievable were calculated to be 528 PJ/a, leading to CO2 emission reductions of 52.6 Mt per year. The required investment needed to realise the calculated heat pump market potential was estimated to be in the range of €4.60 billion – €11.50 billion, clearly indicating the opportunities for heat pump manufacturers developing products for this market.
For more information on industrial heat pumps technology, the 45th IIR Informatory Note is available for download on FRIDOC:
https://iifiir.org/en/fridoc/high-temperature-heat-pumps-for-industrial-applications-amp-nbsp-144137
Sources
Ayou D. S., Corberán J. M., Coronas A. High-temperature heat pumps for industrial applications, 45th Informatory Note on Refrigeration Technologies. https://iifiir.org/en/fridoc/high-temperature-heat-pumps-for-industrial-applications-amp-nbsp-144137
Marina, A., Spoelstra, S., Zondag, H. A., & Wemmers, A. K. (2021). An estimation of the European industrial heat pump market potential. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 139, 110545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110545