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Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface.

Author(s) : TETT S. F. B., STOTT P. A., ALLEN M. R., et al.

Type of article: Article

Summary

Observations of the Earth near-surface temperature show a global-mean temperature increase of approximately 0.6 K since 1900, occurring from 1910 to 1940 and from 1970 to the present. The authors present a quantification of the possible contribution throughout the century from the four components most likely to be responsible for the large-scale temperature changes, of which two vary naturally (solar irradiance and stratospheric volcanic aerosols) and two have changed decisively due to anthropogenic influence (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols). They find that solar forcing may have contributed to the temperature changes early in the century, but anthropogenic causes combined with natural variability would also present a possible explanation. For the warming from 1946 to 1996 regardless of any possible amplification of solar or volcanic influence, the authors exclude purely natural forcing, and attribute it largely to the anthropogenic components.

Details

  • Original title: Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface.
  • Record ID : 2000-1051
  • Languages: English
  • Subject: Environment, General information
  • Source: Nature - vol. 399 - n. 6736
  • Publication date: 1999/06/10
  • Document available for consultation in the library of the IIR headquarters only.

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