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Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming.

Author(s) : TIMMERMANN A., OBERHUBER J., BACHER A., et al.

Type of article: Article

Summary

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the region, but it also influences the entire global climate system. ENSO can be understood as an irregular low-frequency oscillation between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) state. The strong El Niños of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, along with the more frequent occurrences of El Niños during the past few decades, raise the question of whether human-induced "greenhouse" warming affects, or will affect, ENSO. Here the authors present results from a global climate model with sufficient resolution in the tropics to adequately represent the narrow equatorial upwelling and low-frequency waves. When the model is forced by a realistic future scenario of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, more frequent El-Niño-like conditions and stronger cold events in the tropical Pacific Ocean result.

Details

  • Original title: Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming.
  • Record ID : 2000-1046
  • Languages: English
  • Subject: Environment, General information
  • Source: Nature - vol. 398 - n. 6729
  • Publication date: 1999/04/22
  • Document available for consultation in the library of the IIR headquarters only.

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