European heat pump market and statistics report 2016

Heat pump sales in Europe have reached in 2015 the highest number ever recorded: 890 302 units.Year-over-year 12% more heat pumps were sold in the 21 European countries covered by this year’s EHPA (European Heat Pump Association) report.
European heat pump market grew for the third consecutive year in 2015.  Heat pump sales in Europe have reached in 2015 the highest number ever recorded: 890 302 units.Year-over-year 12% more heat pumps were sold in the 21 European countries covered by this year’s EHPA report. Assuming a useful life of 20 years, the heat pump stock at the end of 2015 is 8.4 million units. With approximately 120 million residential buildings in Europe, the heat pump market share in the building stock is 7%.

All but one market in 2015 show growth. Seven out of 21 grew at 20% or more. This group is led by Ireland (+68%), followed by Belgium (+58%) and Spain (+50%).
In 2015 the number of countries that enjoy growth for at least two years in a row has reached 11 (Austria, Czech republic, Estonia, France, Ireland, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom).
Both developments point to the direction of an upcoming phase of more stable growth for heat pump markets in Europe.

The group of top-10 markets by sales volume was led by Spain (+27 679), Italy (+20 182) and France (+15 727). Sales in the top-10 countries accumulated to 784 117 units / 88% of the totals for 2015.

The Nordic countries show the biggest market penetration for heat pumps in the building stock and experience also significant shares of the technology in the renovation sector. In sum, Sweden, Norway and Denmark grew by 20 786 units with Finland declining by 8 469 units.
While Sweden’s market is maturing it reveals a significant growth perspective for Europe. If all countries had the same market penetration as Sweden, the annual sales number of heat pumps in Europe would exceed more than 5 times today’s, resulting in 6.1 million units sold per year and eventually, reaching a stock of 71.4 million units.

For policy makers, this is good news as it provides a huge potential to reduce Europe’s energy demand for heating, cooling and hot water production. Achieving it by 2030 would require an annual 15.3% growth rate and a tremendous effort with regards to framework conditions, efficiency requirements for buildings, upskilling of installer and planner/architect qualification as well as the development of flanking measures.

In 2015, a total heat pump capacity of over 7.4 GW was installed producing approximately 14.4 TWh of useful energy, integrating 9.1 TWh of renewables in heating and cooling and avoiding 2.3 Mt of CO2-equivalent emissions. An additional 5.2 TWh of primary energy was saved resulting in a reduced final energy demand of 11.6 TWh. In order to produce the 2015 sales volume and to maintain the installed stock, a total of 48 073 man-years of employment were necessary. Obviously real employment related to the heat pump market is larger, as not all employees work full-time on heat pumps only.

In aggregated terms, nearly 8.4 million heat pump units were installed since 1995. This amounts to an installed thermal capacity of 73.6 GW. All installed heat pumps produce 148 TWh of useful energy, 94.7 TWh of which being renewable. Their use saved 121 TWh of final and 56.8 TWh of primary energy. Franc is the country that produces the most renewable enery, followed by Sweden, Germany and Italy.

The heat pump stock in 2015 (heat pumps sold in the past twenty years) contributed to 24.4 Mt of greenhouse gas emission savings. The distribution of emission savings per country is very similar to that of renewable energy production, since both calculations are directly linked to the number of units installed and the related reduction in demand for fossil energy.
In summary, heat pump markets are back on track. While the 12% growth in 2015 is a good sign, it is insufficient to achieve the aim for decarbonisation of heating and cooling by 2050.

Source: EHPA

The IIR members benefit from a -10% discount on the European Annual Heat Pump Market Report, as well as the participation on the EHPA's Annual Forum.