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Global air-to-water heat pump market: modest growth in 2023 amid regional variations

According to JARN, the global air-to-water (ATW) heat pump market increased by 0.2% in 2023, reaching close to 5 million units. 

Air source heat pumps represent the bulk of the global stock of installed heat pumps, including air-to-air and air-to water systems [1, 2]. Air-to-water heat pumps collect heat from the air, which is used as a heat source to heat water for space heating and hot water supply. 

 

According to JARN [3], global demand for air-to-water (ATW) heat pumps reached 4.96 million units in 2023, a slight increase of 0.2% since 2022. 

 

China is the leading global market for heat pumps, with air-to-water units representing nearly 30% of the installed capacity in the country, most commonly in northern China [2]. In 2023, the Chinese ATW heat pump market grew by 6.6% year on year to about 2.47 million units, according to JARN estimates [3]. The market is supported by the “Double Carbon” policy which targets carbon neutrality by 2060. 

 

In Europe, the second-largest market worldwide, it is estimated that the ATW market dropped by 11.5% in 2023, reaching 1. 5 million units. France, Germany and Italy represented more than half of the European ATW market. ATW adoption has been hindered by several factors including postponed bans on fossil fuels, cuts in subsidies or shortage of heat pump installers. 

 

In Japan, the third largest market, the water heater market was down by 9.2% according to the Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association (JRAIA) [3]. ATW adoption is aligned with the Japanese government’s target of reducing GHG emissions by 46% in 2030. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has established a subsidy system to promote the adoption of high-efficiency water heaters, with  the objective of reaching 15.9 million water heaters by 2030.

 

 

Find out more about the technology of air source heat pumps by downloading the IIR Informatory Note on “Air source heat pumps for space heating and cooling”. [4]

 

Sources:

[1] Rosenow, J., Gibb, D., Nowak, T. et al. Heating up the global heat pump market. Nat Energy 7, 901–904 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01104-8

[2] IEA (2024). “Type of equipment by climate zone” in The Future of Heat Pumps in China, IEA, Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-heat-pumps-in-china

[3] JARN, Special Issue July 25, 2024 

[4] Li, X., & Wang, B. (2021). Air source heat pumps for space heating and cooling, 41st Informatory Note on Refrigeration Technologies. International Institute of Refrigeration. https://doi.org/10.18462/iif.NItec41.01.2021