Analysis on development in cold chain logistics

Growth in global cold chain market will remain at 8% in 2017 and China’s cold chain logistics lags behind.
Growth in global cold chain market will remain at 8% in 2017 and China’s cold chain logistics lags behind.

The global cold chain market has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2012, the market size reached USD 100 billion. Based on the infrastructure construction plans in different markets and market leader’s growth forecast around the globe, it is estimated by International Association of refrigerated Warehouses that the global cold chain industry will keep growing fast in market size in 2017 at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%. Although Europe and America remain as the major cold chain markets, emerging markets will contribute more growth in the future as mature cold chain markets reach saturation. 68% of the growth in refrigerated warehouse capacity will come from China and India.

China’s cold chain facility lags behind that of the developed countries. Compared to the mature cold chain markets in Europe and America, the absolute refrigerated warehouses capacity in China ranks the third in the world (only after USA and India) but per capital capacity (0.097 square meter/person in 2010) is less than that of the United States in 1949 (0.123) or Japan in 1965 (0.15). The gap in infrastructure indicates that the downstream demand for cold chain has been fully capitalized. The cold chain logistics has vast room to grow in terms of cold chain technology and management, as well as cold chain awareness.



Despite the progress made in the refrigerated warehouses, some barriers are on the way to build a healthy cold chain industry:
    Irrational refrigerated warehouse structures with over-supply of large-scale refrigerated warehouses and short-supply of warehouses for wholesale or retail; over-supply of warehouses for meat but short-supply of warehouses for fruits and vegetables
    Local technology on key cold chain equipment is insufficient and must rely on import. Some out-of-date refrigerated warehouses with unsatisfactory safety features and high maintenance costs are still in use and cannot meet the demand of modern cold chain development.
    Refrigerated warehouses’s overall level of electronization and intelligentialization is low and is hard to synergize with modern supply chain systems.
Policy environment in China is getting better. A large number of supporting policies have been introduced by the state since 2009 to encourage the rapid development of the cold chain industry.
Plan on the development of Cold Chain Logistics for Agricultural Products, the eight-article regulation by the State Council on logistics, and nine-article regulation by the State Council on logistics are all specific on promoting the development of the cold chain industry. In the meantime, industry standards have been established and rationalized to ensure a healthy development.



The growth rates of China’s cold chain logistics in recent years have repeatedly beat market forecast. Data from China Cold Chain Logistics Alliance indicate that in the ten years from 1998 to 2008, the refrigerated warehouse capacity only increased 2 million cubic meters while the two years from 2008 to 2010, the capacity quadrupled. Based on the latest data provided by the Cold Chain Committee of China Society of Logistics, the authors of the report estimate that public refrigerated warehouse capacity in China exceeded 70 million cubic meters in 2013.
On top of the refrigerated warehouses, the number of refrigerator truck is increasing rapidly. According to the survey conducted by China Cold Chain Logistics Alliance over 680 cold chain logistic enterprises above designated size in China, there were total of 29,444 refrigerator trucks in 2014 and a total of 3.3 million tons of new refrigerated warehouse capacity was under plan (not including ongoing constructions and second phase warehouses), a huge drop from the planned new capacity of 13 million tons in 2013. 1205 new refrigerator trucks were planned in 2014, which does not change much from 1280 in 2013, indicating the refrigerated warehouse capacity in China is reaching saturation while the increase in the demand for refrigerator trucks is stable and the probability of truck transport and city distribution and delivery outsourcing is in rising.
The imbalanced economic development across different regions also translates into imbalanced development in cold chain logistics. Cold chain systems tend to gather around big cities and coastal regions with Eastern China being on the top followed by central and Northern China where the number and scale of cold chain logistics parks are also on the rise, suggesting that the level of cold chain logistics development has a direct relationship with local economic development. Jiangsu province tops the chart with 3.2 million tons of refrigerated warehouse capacity, including 370 high-temperature warehouses with 16.92 million square meters in area, and 180 ultra-low-temperature warehouses with 8.73 million square meters in area.

Specifically, economically developed provinces and municipalities or those where agriculture tends to concentrate have higher total refrigerated warehouse capacity and per capita capacity.
    Shandong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong and Jiangsu rank on the top in terms of total refrigerated warehouse capacity
    Tianjin, Ningxia, Shanghai, Beijing, Fujian and Shandong rank on the top in terms of per capita capacity.


Despite the progress made in the refrigerated warehouses, some barriers are on the way to build a healthy cold chain industry:
    Irrational refrigerated warehouse structures with over-supply of large-scale refrigerated warehouses and short-supply of warehouses for wholesale or retail; over-supply of warehouses for meat but short-supply of warehouses for fruits and vegetables
    Local technology on key cold chain equipment is insufficient and must rely on import. Some out-of-date refrigerated warehouses with unsatisfactory safety features and high maintenance costs are still in use and cannot meet the demand of modern cold chain development.

    Refrigerated warehouses’s overall level of electronization and intelligentialization is low and is hard to synergize with modern supply chain systems.
Policy environment in China is getting better. A large number of supporting policies have been introduced by the state since 2009 to encourage the rapid development of the cold chain industry.

Plan on the development of Cold Chain Logistics for Agricultural Products, the eight-article regulation by the State Council on logistics, and nine-article regulation by the State Council on logistics are all specific on promoting the development of the cold chain industry. In the meantime, industry standards have been established and rationalized to ensure a healthy development.

Source: Deloitte

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