ShareChina heat pump market in 2023
Although the country still relies heavily on coal for heating, China is currently the only major market where heat pumps sales grew in 2023, when global sales declined by 3% according to the IEA.
Since 2020, heat pump sales have increased by almost 30% worldwide, despite a 3% decline in 2023, according to a report published in March 2024 by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Overview of the global heat pump market in 2023
In 2023, heat pumps sales declined in several markets worldwide. In the EU, sales fell by 5%. In the United States, sales of heat pumps were down around 15% by the end of 2023, although it should be noted that sales of gas furnaces declined by over 20% compared to 2022. In Japan, heat pump water heater sales decreased by 10%, after seven consecutive years of growth.
China accounted for around 30% of global sales by the end of 2022. In 2023, sales of heat pumps rose by 12% compared with the previous year. Sales were primarily driven by air-source heat pumps used for space heating, which experienced growth of over 15% year-on-year. In contrast, domestic hot water heat pumps remained at the same level as 2022.
China is also the largest manufacturer of decentralised heat pumps for buildings, producing around 35% of all heat pumps sold worldwide in 2022. The sector currently employs more than 300,000 people.
China is the world's largest market for heat pumps for buildings, accounting for about 25% of the global installed capacity.
The IEA estimates that heat pumps in residential and non-residential buildings account for more than 10% of total heat capacity in buildings worldwide (about 1,000 GW). China accounted for around 25% of total installed heat pump capacity by the end of 2022.
Air-to-water units represent nearly 30% (about 80 GW) of the installed capacity in China, most common in northern China. Air-to-air units are predominantly installed in areas with hot summers and cold winters, where they are used for heating and cooling purposes on a part-time and part-space basis (i.e. heating just one room for part of the day). The stock of air-to-air units in China reached around 165 GW by the end of 2022, representing more than 60% of the national installed capacity. Ground-source units are more widespread in urban areas and represent around 10% of the country’s heat pump stock.
It should be noted that China is still heavily reliant on coal. The direct use of coal for heat supply accounts for around half of final energy use for heating in buildings and industry.
What about industrial heat pumps?
Industrial sectors such as light industries, pulp and paper production, and in the chemical sector represent over a third of industrial heat consumption in China. However, today there is a limited focus on heat pumps in industry decarbonisation plans, and a difficulty in standardising them, as it requires tailoring systems to specific industrial processes.
For more information, download the report here.
Source
IEA (2024), The Future of Heat Pumps in China, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-heat-pumps-in-china