Emissions Gap Report 2024: the role of refrigeration in reducing emissions

In October 2024, UNEP released its annual Emissions Gap report in preparation for the annual climate negotiations of MOP and COP. (read about IIR's participation at COP13 and MOP36 here)

 

This year’s report acts as a reminder of the upcoming deadline (early 2025) for countries to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for 2035. To get on track for 1.5°C, emission reductions of 42% are needed by 2030 and 57% by 2035 ^[1].

If governments adhere only to the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) without introducing any new commitments, the world faces the alarming prospect of global temperatures rising by as much as 2.6°C by the end of the century. Even with the full implementation of both unconditional and conditional NDCs—where the latter relies on external support—we would see only a 10% reduction in projected emissions by 2030, still resulting in a potential increase of 2.6°C. Furthermore, focusing solely on current conditional NDCs could push warming to 2.8°C, while strictly following existing policies might escalate temperatures to 3.1°C. Such outcomes would have severe repercussions for people, ecosystems, and economies, necessitating costly and extensive efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to address the overshoot of the targets set in the Paris Agreement.

 

The inclusion of refrigeration and air conditioning in NDCs is essential for effectively tackling climate change. According to Global Cooling Watch report ^[2], the cooling emissions are approximately 2.8 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent annually, a figure projected to rise significantly as global temperatures increase and demand for cooling solutions grows. By integrating energy-efficient cooling technologies—such as high-efficiency air conditioners and refrigerants with lower global warming potential—into NDCs, countries can achieve substantial emission reductions. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition estimates that improving energy efficiency in cooling could reduce emissions by up to 1.5 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent annually by 2030.

 

According to UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report, in the energy sector, increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27% of this total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035.

 

The industry sector could potentially reduce emissions by 31% in 2030 and 45% in 2035 compared with current policies projections. Mitigation measures include electrification and fuel switching among others, with electric boilers and industrial heat pumps potentially saving 2.1 GtCO₂e/year in 2035.

 

In the building sector, energy efficiency standards for appliances and new buildings represent the major policy for speeding up mitigation. In developing countries, especially, 0.5 GtCO₂e/year by 2030 and 0.6 GtCO₂e/year by 2035 could potentially be saved from heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, demand-side management measures for new buildings and improved efficiency of appliances. In developed countries, the emission reduction potential resides mainly in avoided demand and efficiency improvements for new builds.

 

It is reported that between US$1.3 trillion and US$2.1 trillion will need to be invested per year by 2035 on energy efficiency measures in retrofits and new construction, with significant funds also directed towards heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, water heaters and cooking systems.

 

For more information, the complete report is available on FRIDOC or on the UNEP website.

 

 

Sources

[1] UNEP. Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024

[2] Global Cooling Watch 2023. https://iifiir.org/en/fridoc/global-cooling-watch-2023-lt-br-gt-amp-nbsp-keeping-it-chill-how-to-meet-148330