Global Cooling Watch 2025: Implementing a sustainable pathway to zero-emission cooling

During COP30 in Belém, Brazil, UNEP released the 2^nd edition of its Global Cooling Watch report, which serves as scientific foundation for the Global Cooling Pledge and charts pathways toward near-zero emissions from cooling. As for the first edition in 2023, IIR’s Science and Technology Council (STC) contributed to the Global Cooling Watch 2025 report as reviewers and topical authors.

 

Key findings

 

According to the Global Cooling Watch 2025 report, the global stock of cooling equipment could more than triple by 2050 – especially in Africa and South Asia – driven by population growth and rising incomes, as well as by more frequent extreme heat events and policies to support access to cooling for the poorest households.

 

Without an integrated approach, under business-as-usual (BAU), cooling demand could more than triple from 22 TW in 2022 to 68 TW by 2050, which would almost double emissions over 2022 levels, pushing cooling emissions to an estimated 7.2 billion tons of CO₂e by 2050.

 

The report suggests adopting a “Sustainable Cooling Pathway”, which could reduce emissions to 64 % – 2.6 billion tons of CO₂e – below the levels expected in 2050. When combined with rapid decarbonisation of the global power sector, residual cooling emissions could fall to 97 % below business-as-usual levels.

 

This Sustainable Cooling Pathway combines:

• passive cooling – including wall and roof design, glazing, shading, ventilation and green/blue spaces. Strategic combinations of multiple passive interventions can achieve total temperature reductions of 6–9 °C, often removing the need for mechanical cooling in many tropical and temperate regions.
• low-energy solutions – including fans, evaporative coolers, hybrid air conditioning and solar off-grid solutions. Passive cooling and low-energy solutions are shown to deliver significant comfort gains at the lowest cost and could reduce the 2050 installed cooling capacity by 41 %, from 68 TW to 40 TW. Moreover, combining AC with fans can cut energy use by 30% or more, compared to conventional air conditioning.
• the adoption of high-efficiency cooling equipment;
• a rapid phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

 

Recommendations for policymakers

 

Since the 1^st edition in 2023, the report shows a growing momentum in the global policy landscape to address cooling:

• 134 countries now include cooling into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) and/or energy plans.
• 29 countries have set cooling-related emissions targets.
• 72 countries have signed the Global Cooling Pledge, committing to a 68% reduction in cooling emissions by 2050.

 

The Global Cooling Watch 2025 report introduces two frameworks providing structured approaches for policymakers and practitioners:

• The “Sustainable Cooling Hierarchy”, a four-step approach to guide design and implementation to reduce energy use and emissions from cooling systems. This framework sets adoption of passive cooling solutions as foundational to reduce cooling load from both air conditioning and refrigeration systems and to lower the upfront capital investment needed in cooling equipment.
• The “Tiered Access to Sustainable Cooling Framework”, which supports policy measures to improve access to sustainable cooling from Tier 0 (no access) to Tier 5 (best-in-class solutions according to climate conditions).

 

 

For more information, the complete report is available on the UNEP website and on FRIDOC.