China continues CO2 emission decline despite heatwaves

China appears to be on track for a decline in annual emissions this year, according to an analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data. 

 

In the second quarter of 2024, China’s CO₂ emissions fell by an average of 1%, the first quarterly fall since the country re-opened from zero-Covid ^[1]. Within the overall total, power sector emissions fell by 3%. 

This reduction in CO₂ emissions was driven by the additions of new clean power capacity. Solar capacity increased by 31% (102 gigawatts (GW)) while wind capacity increased by 12% (26 GW) in the first half of 2024, compared with the first half of last year. 

 

In the third quarter of 2024, heatwaves in August and September caused a significant increase in electricity demand for air conditioning ^[2]. This led to a 2% increase in coal-fired power generation and a 13% rise for gas-fired power in the third quarter, despite continued growth of wind and solar capacity. 

Nevertheless, the increase in emissions in the power sector was offset by falling emissions from steel, cement and oil use, along with stagnating gas demand outside the power sector. Consequently, China’s CO₂ emissions in the third quarter remained at the same level as last year at the same period. 

 

 

 

Sources 

[1] Carbon Brief, 08/08/2024. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-falls-1-in-q2-2024-in-first-quarterly-drop-since-covid-19/ 

[2] Carbon Brief, 29/10/2024. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-no-growth-for-chinas-emissions-in-q3-2024-despite-coal-power-rebound/