Scientists reveal that a faster HFC phase-down offers significant cost savings and environmental gains

What are HFCs?

 

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetic gases widely utilized as operating fluids in air conditioners, refrigeration systems and heat pumps worldwide. They were originally introduced in the 1970s as a replacement for the previously utilized chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) after the discovery of their significant contribution to the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. HFC refrigerants, such as R-134a, R-32, R-410A and R-404A, do not damage the ozone layer, and were therefore employed for decades in refrigeration and heat pump technology. However, it was later scientifically demonstrated that such synthetic fluids are potent greenhouse gases, characterized by a Global Warming Potential (GWP) which can be hundreds to thousands of times higher than carbon dioxide.

 

To address this growing climate threat, countries agreed in 2016 to gradually phase down HFC use under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. The IIR has prepared a summary sheet on the Kigali Amendment, available in FRIDOC.

In the Kigali Amendment agreement, a timeline for the HFCs reduction was defined at international level, with different phase down starting years for developed (Article 5 Parties) and developing (Non-Article 5 Parties) countries (see our previous article).

 

Who benefits from a faster phase-down?

 

Now, a new study published by the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) ^[1], in USA, and authored by an international group of experts including members of the IIR Cooling and Refrigeration Emissions and Energy data (CREED) Working Group, suggests that moving faster than the currently agreed HFC phase-down schedule would not only help avoid near-term climate tipping points but would also cost less overall. According to the researchers, delaying action through grace periods, especially for developing countries, would end up being economically and environmentally counterproductive.

 

The authors highlight that a rapid reduction of HFCs would lower costs for a wide range of stakeholders.

• Consumers purchasing new refrigeration equipment could save money over time thanks to lower energy use and reduced servicing costs, even if the upfront prices are slightly higher.
• Cities and neighbourhoods would benefit from cleaner air, as more efficient refrigeration reduces demand on primary energy sources, including fossil fuel power plants, leading to a reduction in health care costs and improving productivity.
• Families and communities would invest money from electricity savings in local goods and services, enhancing quality of life and contributing to economy circulation.
• National governments could also see financial gains: faster compliance with climate treaties would reduce long-term regulatory costs, improve trade balances and make borrowing for renewable energy and public infrastructure more affordable.
• Finally, even manufacturers of alternative refrigeration technologies could benefit through stronger brand reputation and improved environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance.

 

Refrigerant choice and management matters

 

A key finding of the study is that markets are already moving faster than international timelines where cost-effective alternatives exist. In China, companies are currently choosing to market efficient refrigeration systems operating with refrigerants that do not break down into trifuoroacetic acid (TFA), considered a per- and poly-alkyl substance (PFAS) and an “everywhere and forever” chemical. Propane (R290) could represent an environmentally friendly alternative to synthetic gases. However, its flammability will require careful system design and safety measures. Still, new developments, including “responsibly sourced” propane made from renewable materials, could expand its future role.

 

The authors also highlight that better lifecycle refrigerant management (LRM) strengthens the case for faster action: it avoids unnecessary sales of outdated, high-emission technologies that require servicing and prevents incentives that unintentionally keep harmful HFCs in use longer than necessary.

 

 

For more information, the scientific paper is available in open access in the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) website. 

 

 

Sources:

[1] Andersen, S. O., Hu, J., Jiang, P., Carvalho, S., Ferris, R., Sun, X., Agyarko, K. A., Chen, Z., González, M. (2025). HFC phasedown under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol is less costly if fast than if slow. Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. https://www.igsd.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/HFC-Phasedown-Under-Kigali-Amendment-Is-Less-Costly-if-Fast-Than-if-Slow.pdf